GE 2015: First Predictions

Anything can happen the next few days. Blunders made, stars shining, things which will affect the the polls. For now though, here are my thoughts as of nomination day.

Wards where I don't know the contestants well but expect the PAP to win

Mainly because the oppositions are not well known, the PAP is incumbent, and/or the West has traditionally won by a higher margin.

Bukit Batok SMC

Bukit Panjang SMC

Mountbatten SMC

Pioneer SMC

Chua Chu Kang GRC

Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC

Wards where I don't know the contestants well so anything goes

Jalan Besar GRC

Wards which PAP will most likely win

Yuhua SMC - Boo, my ward is boring

Hong Kah North SMC

Radin Mas SMC - Goodness Singapore if PAP doesn't win this ward I fear for our nation

West Coast GRC - What I said for Radin Mas SMC is true for this as well. Please don't put RP in parliament. Don't worry, this and Radin Mas aren't the biggest jokes yet.

Bishan-Toa Payoh - It's an effort I would say, but I think it's not enough.

Jurong GRC

Marine Parade GRC - No more Tin Pei Ling. The opponent might be WP, but unless someone messes up again I don't see Goh Chok Tong being voted out

Sembawang GRC

Tampines GRC

Tanjong Pajar GRC

Ang Mo Kio GRC - Eh please lah. Can I propose we give PAP a 87.6% mandate in this ward so RP forfeits their deposit and leaves politics forever. Seriously RP. this is the hardest ward to win and RP decides to go ahead and send M. Ravi, Roy Ngerng and co here. Go home lah. Anyway, it is interesting to note that Dr Koh Poh Koon who bombed out of Punggol East by-election is being given a ride into parliament here.

Pasir-Ris Punggol - This one is rather interesting. There's a DPM here sure, but he's the lesser liked one of the two. There's the guy who dedicated his workout to LKY. There's our latest star the CDF of SAF. It's most likely a PAP win but the PAP candidates are an interesting bunch. If it is a free ride like AMK, it's a free ride for the CDF.

Hot seats which favour PAP

Holland-Bukit Timah GRC - Chee Soon Juan is back, but I suspect Singaporeans may not really want him. But who knows.

Nee Soon GRC - Anywhere with WP is interesting, but I have my reservations about this one

Hot seats which favour the opposition

Fengshan SMC - Fengshan is a new ward carved out of East Coast GRC after the GRC's poor performance last GE. Speculations are that Fengshan did poorly for the 2011 elections, and although it is denied, I find it entirely possible given the stark difference in demographics between Fengshan and the rest of East Coast GRC. This may well be the sacrifice to keep East Coast alive

Hougang SMC - Once a ward falls to WP, it's going to be hard to take it back.

MacPherson SMC - This is a really interesting contest and it may well be quite close actually. The PAP's representative is the infamous Tin Pei Ling. However, she has an advantage in facing a 3-cornered fight and more importantly, the demographics of MacPherson favouring PAP. Tin Pei Ling may well win on the party name alone. However, I am more inclined to think that WP will take it away and NSP with their internal squabbles would likely not be able to garner much support this election.

Punggol East SMC - As it is in Hougang, once a ward falls to WP, it's going to be hard to take it back.

Aljunied GRC - The star team of WP is here man. WP is far more likely to lose everywhere else than they are to lose their home ground.

Hot seats where anything goes

Potong Pasir SMC - The closest fight of GE2011, with a mere 114 vote majority (less than 1%) victory to the PAP. Will SPP win it back? I'm really not sure.

Sengkang West SMC - WP candidate near the WP homeground, and an SMC. it's a hard call for me. I don't know the candidates though. In GE2011 the same two people clashed but I suspect WP would have greater support this time round from the electorate.

East Coast GRC - This one is interesting. In GE2011 it was one of the worst performing wards for the PAP. This time round, WP is sending a strong team to contest it. This seems to suggest that WP may well win this ward. However, if it is true that Fengshan was carved out due to its poor performance, it has a good chance of staying in the incumbent's hands.


I expect WP to increase in the number of wards it controls. 2 more SMCs likely to go to them, perhaps more. Other than that, I suppose only Lina Chiam has a more likely chance to win Potong Pasir back. The rest of the wards should still go to PAP, but with PAP's overall vote share falling once more. I except this election to continue to weaken the dominance of the ruling party, but not quite enough yet.