Campaigning period has ended. Below are my nomination day predictions with my comments tacked on them in red. This year's campaigning wasn't as full of crazy stuff as GE2011. so there are actually only two category shifts, and they merely went from favouring one side to a neutral 'anything goes' position. Both those shifts are significant though. I have also cast my predictions on the 'anything goes' portions as well, though I could be wrong on those.
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Mainly because the oppositions are not well known, the PAP is incumbent, and/or the West has traditionally won by a higher margin.
Bukit Batok SMC
Bukit Panjang SMC
Mountbatten SMC
Pioneer SMC
Chua Chu Kang GRC
Marsiling-Yew Tee GRC
Wards where I don't know the contestants well so anything goes
Jalan Besar GRC
Wards which PAP will most likely win
Yuhua SMC - Boo, my ward is boring
Hong Kah North SMC
Radin Mas SMC - Goodness Singapore if PAP doesn't win this ward I fear for our nation
West Coast GRC - What I said for Radin Mas SMC is true for this as well. Please don't put RP in parliament. Don't worry, this and Radin Mas aren't the biggest jokes yet.
Bishan-Toa Payoh - It's an effort I would say, but I think it's not enough.
Jurong GRC
Marine Parade GRC - No more Tin Pei Ling. The opponent might be WP, but unless someone messes up again I don't see Goh Chok Tong being voted out
Sembawang GRC
Tampines GRC
Tanjong Pajar GRC
Ang Mo Kio GRC - Eh please lah. Can I propose we give PAP a 87.6% mandate in this ward so RP forfeits their deposit and leaves politics forever. Seriously RP. this is the hardest ward to win and RP decides to go ahead and send M. Ravi, Roy Ngerng and co here. Go home lah. Anyway, it is interesting to note that Dr Koh Poh Koon who bombed out of Punggol East by-election is being given a ride into parliament here.
Pasir-Ris Punggol - This one is rather interesting. There's a DPM here sure, but he's the lesser liked one of the two. There's the guy who dedicated his workout to LKY. There's our latest star the CDF of SAF. It's most likely a PAP win but the PAP candidates are an interesting bunch. If it is a free ride like AMK, it's a free ride for the CDF.
Hot seats which favour PAP
Nee Soon GRC - Anywhere with WP is interesting, but I have my reservations about this one
Hot seats which favour the opposition
Fengshan SMC - Fengshan is a new ward carved out of East Coast GRC after the GRC's poor performance last GE. Speculations are that Fengshan did poorly for the 2011 elections, and although it is denied, I find it entirely possible given the stark difference in demographics between Fengshan and the rest of East Coast GRC. This may well be the sacrifice to keep East Coast alive. I'm actually rather surprised at how little attention has been given to Fengshan. Perhaps I'm wrong about this and it's not as WP favoured as I thought it would be. I'll still leave it here.
Hougang SMC - Once a ward falls to WP, it's going to be hard to take it back.
Punggol East SMC - As it is in Hougang, once a ward falls to WP, it's going to be hard to take it back.
Aljunied GRC - The star team of WP is here man. WP is far more likely to lose everywhere else than they are to lose their home ground.
Hot seats where anything goes
Potong Pasir SMC - The closest fight of GE2011, with a mere 114 vote majority (less than 1%) victory to the PAP. Will SPP win it back? I'm really not sure. Surprisingly little on Potong Pasir SMC as well. I'll give this to PAP as SPP looks weak now, and the fight is really resting on the fact that Lina Chiam is Chiam See Tong's wife.
Sengkang West SMC - WP candidate near the WP homeground, and an SMC. it's a hard call for me. I don't know the candidates though. In GE2011 the same two people clashed but I suspect WP would have greater support this time round from the electorate. Little news on this too, I guess its because the candidates are unknowns. Disappointing since these are probably the tough fights that no one knows what is really going to happen. Due to the lack of information combined with the fact that WP didn't have anything outstanding this time round, I'll go with PAP on this one.
East Coast GRC - This one is interesting. In GE2011 it was one of the worst performing wards for the PAP. This time round, WP is sending a strong team to contest it. This seems to suggest that WP may well win this ward. However, if it is true that Fengshan was carved out due to its poor performance, it has a good chance of staying in the incumbent's hands. Taking a GRC is tough, even if the WP team is strong. WP did break Aljunied when it was really tough too though so who knows, but I'll go with PAP.
*MOVED* MacPherson SMC - This is a really interesting contest and it may well be quite close actually. The PAP's representative is the infamous Tin Pei Ling. However, she has an advantage in facing a 3-cornered fight and more importantly, the demographics of MacPherson favouring PAP. Tin Pei Ling may well win on the party name alone. However, I am more inclined to think that WP will take it away and NSP with their internal squabbles would likely not be able to garner much support this election. Initially I indicated this as a WP favoured ward, but I actually think it is slightly PAP favoured now. Tin Pei Ling has pulled the right moves this election, showing how she has grown from the immature person she was. This combined with the fact that it seems that the residents on the ground genuinely like her for the work she has put in the past few years, it might truly be one of the great stories of this election. NSP did slap themselves really hard though, so the 3-corner fight PAP advantage is neutered as opposition supporters vote for WP over NSP.
*MOVED* Holland-Bukit Timah GRC - Chee Soon Juan is back, but I suspect Singaporeans may not really want him. But who knows. MacPherson might become one of the great stories of the election if Tin Pei Ling pulls it off, but without a doubt Chee Soon Juan is already the biggest story of this election thus far. With the aid of social media and the fairer press as well as Chee Soon Juan becoming more smart about how he handles politics, Chee Soon Juan has transformed from the fool to the hero. The respect he has earned in the past few days is astounding. Even if Chee Soon Juan doesn't get elected, Singapore will never see this man the same again. If he continues to win hearts like this, he will definitely be elected one day. On my part, I won't vote for the SDP due to disagreements with their policies (and not in the sense that I think they are crazy but simply that I do not support them), but I concede that he is a good politician. For now, I'm not sure the policies the SDP proposes will be well received enough for him to be able to clinch this, especially given he is contesting in a higher income area in Singapore. I'll go with a no. Or rather, a not yet, not this time. But really, I won't be surprised if he does win.
Overall
I expect WP to increase in the number of wards it controls. 2 more SMCs likely to go to them, perhaps more. Other than that, I suppose only Lina Chiam has a more likely chance to win Potong Pasir back. The rest of the wards should still go to PAP, but with PAP's overall vote share falling once more. I except this election to continue to weaken the dominance of the ruling party, but not quite enough yet.
Not nearly as confident in WP increasing its wards anymore, though I still think it more likely than not. SDP has become a real contender now as well. Also, PAP vote share might actually not fall, with the political climate being more favourable than the previous GE, people coming to appreciate the new policies that have been put in place, better engagement with the public, as well as a limited number of mistakes made while a few good punches are thrown out.
Some final thoughts: Politics in Singapore is no longer PAP vs opposition anymore. It is clear now that is has become PAP vs WP vs SDP. WP and SDP have churned out talent and have been eloquent, the other political parties have become the butt of jokes and no one takes them seriously anymore. Furthermore WP and SDP have emerged with clear ideologies and plans of where they want to see Singapore headed towards. The other parties will simply fade into the background.
I treat Lina Chiam more like an independent than a SPP representative really, because SPP will never be able to win anywhere else but potong pasir and only if the fielded candidate is Lina Chiam, the wife of Chiam See Tong. If she doesn't win it this time round I think SPP will be completely out for good as well.
Moving forward, if WP remains the only opposition in parliament and retains their seats or loses some, I would expect PAP to continue doing whatever they are doing now. If WP steals a couple more SMC seats, then they would try harder at whatever they are doing now. The political landscape will be affected, but not that much. I think things like the 4th generation leadership coming in as the PM retires may have a bigger effect than those. Taking a second GRC would be big news however, though not as significant as taking the first one in GE2011.
The more critical thing is if Chee Soon Juan takes Holland-Bukit Timah GRC. If that happens...well, welcome to the new age. SDP's policies are unlike WP's safe policies. Chee Soon Juan commands a far more outstanding presence than Low Thia Khiang. He has the aura, some would perhaps consider him PM material. It would send shockwaves through the political landscape more than GE2011 did with WP taking a GRC, and that's saying something.
This was completely out of my predictions, something I did not expect at all. Holland-Bukit Timah has eclipsed all the WP wards as the most important ward to watch this election.
http://mothership.sg/2015/09/the-rehabilitation-of-chee-soon-juans-public-image-is-most-likely-the-story-of-ge2015/
http://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2015/09/ge2015-day-7-diary-the-rise-of-chee-soon-juan/
*MOVED* Holland-Bukit Timah GRC - Chee Soon Juan is back, but I suspect Singaporeans may not really want him. But who knows. MacPherson might become one of the great stories of the election if Tin Pei Ling pulls it off, but without a doubt Chee Soon Juan is already the biggest story of this election thus far. With the aid of social media and the fairer press as well as Chee Soon Juan becoming more smart about how he handles politics, Chee Soon Juan has transformed from the fool to the hero. The respect he has earned in the past few days is astounding. Even if Chee Soon Juan doesn't get elected, Singapore will never see this man the same again. If he continues to win hearts like this, he will definitely be elected one day. On my part, I won't vote for the SDP due to disagreements with their policies (and not in the sense that I think they are crazy but simply that I do not support them), but I concede that he is a good politician. For now, I'm not sure the policies the SDP proposes will be well received enough for him to be able to clinch this, especially given he is contesting in a higher income area in Singapore. I'll go with a no. Or rather, a not yet, not this time. But really, I won't be surprised if he does win.
Overall
I expect WP to increase in the number of wards it controls. 2 more SMCs likely to go to them, perhaps more. Other than that, I suppose only Lina Chiam has a more likely chance to win Potong Pasir back. The rest of the wards should still go to PAP, but with PAP's overall vote share falling once more. I except this election to continue to weaken the dominance of the ruling party, but not quite enough yet.
Not nearly as confident in WP increasing its wards anymore, though I still think it more likely than not. SDP has become a real contender now as well. Also, PAP vote share might actually not fall, with the political climate being more favourable than the previous GE, people coming to appreciate the new policies that have been put in place, better engagement with the public, as well as a limited number of mistakes made while a few good punches are thrown out.
Some final thoughts: Politics in Singapore is no longer PAP vs opposition anymore. It is clear now that is has become PAP vs WP vs SDP. WP and SDP have churned out talent and have been eloquent, the other political parties have become the butt of jokes and no one takes them seriously anymore. Furthermore WP and SDP have emerged with clear ideologies and plans of where they want to see Singapore headed towards. The other parties will simply fade into the background.
I treat Lina Chiam more like an independent than a SPP representative really, because SPP will never be able to win anywhere else but potong pasir and only if the fielded candidate is Lina Chiam, the wife of Chiam See Tong. If she doesn't win it this time round I think SPP will be completely out for good as well.
Moving forward, if WP remains the only opposition in parliament and retains their seats or loses some, I would expect PAP to continue doing whatever they are doing now. If WP steals a couple more SMC seats, then they would try harder at whatever they are doing now. The political landscape will be affected, but not that much. I think things like the 4th generation leadership coming in as the PM retires may have a bigger effect than those. Taking a second GRC would be big news however, though not as significant as taking the first one in GE2011.
The more critical thing is if Chee Soon Juan takes Holland-Bukit Timah GRC. If that happens...well, welcome to the new age. SDP's policies are unlike WP's safe policies. Chee Soon Juan commands a far more outstanding presence than Low Thia Khiang. He has the aura, some would perhaps consider him PM material. It would send shockwaves through the political landscape more than GE2011 did with WP taking a GRC, and that's saying something.
This was completely out of my predictions, something I did not expect at all. Holland-Bukit Timah has eclipsed all the WP wards as the most important ward to watch this election.
http://mothership.sg/2015/09/the-rehabilitation-of-chee-soon-juans-public-image-is-most-likely-the-story-of-ge2015/
http://www.theonlinecitizen.com/2015/09/ge2015-day-7-diary-the-rise-of-chee-soon-juan/
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