I have talked a lot about luck, privilege and meritocracy here:
- http://ipokeyouwithapencilthatissharp.blogspot.com/2015/11/privilege.html
- http://ipokeyouwithapencilthatissharp.blogspot.com/2019/02/the-radical-moral-implications-of-luck.html
- http://ipokeyouwithapencilthatissharp.blogspot.com/2019/12/life-is-unfair-to-our-benefit.html
- http://ipokeyouwithapencilthatissharp.blogspot.com/2020/03/theres-saying-that-goes-health-is.html
So I won't say too much again. Just that I chanced upon this video, and had a few thoughts.
1) Anyone who plays enough games knows about the snowball effect. It is about how the accumulation of little advantages puts you to in a position to gain further advantages. In dota at the highest level, denying a few creeps in the mid lane more than the enemy can lead to slightly earlier items and levels, which in turn helps you deny even more creeps, until you dominate the lane and eventually the game. In many resource management games, good resource management means you are able to accumulate more resource generating tools quicker, and in turn that boost your resource generation to accumulate more of those tools and so on. This is also true of life. Little advantages will put you ahead, bit by bit, positioning you to be better able to capitalise on more. The snowball effect is like compound interest. Small gains grow exponentially. This is why even small amounts of luck and privilege can have a significant effect in life.
2) The astronaut example is interesting. For one, luck has way more than 5% impact. Let's remember that for any of those astronauts to even be able to participate in the programme, they must have already been tremendously lucky. Almost all of them would have come from a developed nation, and a functional family that is not in need. If 5% has such a significant factor, imagine the role luck plays in our lives.
3) Intellect is luck. I do get annoyed at people who are illogical and believe nonsensical things, and frankly I don't really want to hold conversations with them. But that said, they didn't necessarily choose to be someone who thinks like that.
4) One final point that is different from what I usually focus on. Regardless of all that is said about luck and privilege, I think it's obvious that effort still plays a huge role too. Your life is heavily impacted by luck, but not wholly directed by it. Yes some huge luck factors like where you were born can outright deny you of certain opportunities. However amongst your 'luck peers' it is your effort that determines how far you go. Using the astronaut example and flipping it around, even if you include the intake to 500 astronauts I am sure you will still find that it is the highest scoring effort astronauts that get the 500 spots. A focus on luck is thus not quite accurate as both come hand in hand. I feel it's necessary to say this because I don't think we should feel totally out of control just because luck is so important. You have a limited scope of control yes, but within that scope you do have control. If we focus on the absolute top in the game, then you need both maximum luck and effort because at the absolute top every little advantage makes a difference. However just because you weren't lucky enough to be an astronaut, doesn't mean you couldn't have been an astrophysicist. The variance of life is huge and different people have vastly different starting points and opportunity to snowball. Given where you are, it is still your effort that determines whether things can improve a little or get worse.
---